中外资所得税“两税合并”的经济效应研究——基于理论分析及来自中国保险业的实践经验

Economic Impact of Income Tax Consolidation——Study Based on Theoretical Analysis and Experiences

结合我国保险市场全面开放的背景，运用战略性贸易政策的思路，从中资和外资企业、消费者、社会福利三方考察了所得税税制改革的经济效应，认为外资企业税率与社会福利之间存在U形曲线的关系。基于此，应用我国保险业2001-2005年的数据进行了经验分析，结果表明，我国保险业处于U形曲线的下降阶段，即“两税合并”后会降低社会福利。所以，应加快发展中资保险公司，并运用新税法中的税收优惠条款，尽早使保险业所得税处于U形曲线的上升阶段。

In early 21307 new law states all firms in China have the same rate of income tax. In this paper the authors use the idea of strategic trade policy with the opening background to build theoretic structure. Then the authors induce insurance companies, consumers and welfare to study the reform of taxation on Chinese insurance industry. Then the authors use the 2001 - 2005 data of Chinese insurance industry to test the theory. The main conclusion on this paper is Chinese insurance industry on the downward curve, so the new law will lower the welfare. The paper uses the short time before 2008 to make Chinese insurance industry on the upward curve by developing Chinese companies and using the preferential clauses.