韶关市春季低温阴雨天气分析和预报

The Analysis and Prediction of Cold and Rainy Weather of Spring in Shaoguan

对1965～2004年韶关市的春季低温阴雨日数进行统计分析，结果表明，韶关市的低温阴雨年平均日数在8～14d，大部分都是湿冷型。1965—1972年韶关低温阴雨日数偏多，1973～1981年偏少，1982-1996年偏多，1997年以后偏少。韶关市逐年的平均低温阴雨日数有4个明显的周期，分别为2．5、3．5、8．3和13．9年。

Based on the daily mean temperature of 8 stations between late February and April in Shaoguan during 1965 - 2004, the statistics methods were applied to research the climatic variations of cold and rainy weather of spring in Shaognan; The results of analyses reveal： in Shaoguan region, there were 8 -14d＇s cold weather every year on average, and most of which were going with rain. There were more cold and rainy weather in 1965 - 1972 and 1982 - 1996,and less in 1973 - 1981 and 1997 - 2004. The cold and rainy weather in Shaoguan has significant periods of 2.5 years ,3.5 years,8.3 years and 13.9 years. Predic- tion by stepwise regression with principal component analysis was performed for cold and rainy weather in Shaognan. The fitting back and testing predictions by stepwise regression equations were significant, which indicates a certain referrence for forecast practice.