我国外债流动风险的实证分析

Analysis of the Inflow Risk of Foreign Debt in China

自20世纪80年代中期以来,我国外债规模呈现快速增长的趋势,资本的大规模流入在促进我国经济发展的同时使我国承受着相对应的外债风险。从近几年利用外债的效果来看,虽然我国在负债率、偿债率等外债清偿能力指标上体现着合理的外债利用规模,但从外债流动结构来看,短期外债、债务主体、外债类型所发生的变化,增加了外债的借债成本与管理风险。从外债增长指标来看,虽然我国在利用外债促进创汇收入上取得了一定的成就,但在外债资金的调配上还存在着不甚合理的情况。因此,我国在加快资本开放的同时应合理调整外债利用结构与规模,降低外债利用的风险。

The amount of China＇ s foreign debt has been increasing since the mid 1980s. Great financial inflow has enhanced foreign debt risks accordingly while promoting the development of China＇ s economy. From the effect of China＇s foreign debt in recent years,we can see that some indexes are logical such as rate of foreign debt, rate of refunding, and capacity of foreign debt reiunding. But there are shll some problems in me composmon oI nnanclat flow of foreign debt, such as short term debt, types of debt and principals of debt. Although we have made rapid progress earning foreign exchanges with foreign debt, it is still unreasonable in allocating foreign financial resources.Therefore ,we should adjust the composition and amount of foreign debt inflow so as to avoid risks of foreign debt.