中国经济增长方式转换和增长可持续性

Transformation of Growth Pattern and Growth Sustainability in China

本文考察了中国经济增长方式正在发生的转换,发现改革开放以来我国生产率(TFP)呈上升趋势,最近10年约在3.6%左右。TFP的来源在发生变化,外源性效率提高的因素在下降,技术进步和内源性效率改善的因素在上升。在要素投入方面,教育带来的人力资本质量提高正在替代劳动力数量简单扩张的作用。目前的世界经济危机正在对中国经济增长造成不良影响,但并不是不可克服的。实证分析发现,行政管理成本的膨胀和消费率的持续下降是影响经济增长的两个内在因素。如果能够克服这些负面影响,中国经济在2008—2020年间仍然可能保持9%以上的增长率。

This paper employs a Lucas-typed growth model to examine transformation of China＇ s growth pattern, and finds that TFP in China is increasing during the reform period. It was around 3.6% during the past decade. The sources of TFP is changing; technological progress and internal sourced efficiency improvement is replacing external sourced efficiency increases. In terms of inputs, the traditional role of quantity expansion of labor force in economic growth has at least partially been replaced by quality improvement in human capital, resulting from improved education. The international economic crisis will affect China＇s economic growth, but not unsurmountable. Our empirical study finds that some internal negative impacts on TFP are more important, i.e., the expansion of the government administrative cost, and the continued decreases in final consumption ratio to GDP. Given that these problems can be solved, China can still sustain a growth rate above 9 % till year 2020.