我国农村消费行为变迁及城乡联动机制研究

China's Rural Consumption Behavior Changes and Rural-Urban Mechanism

本文选取1981—2006年农村消费支出结构数据为研究对象,构建了具有城镇"示范性"影响效应的农民消费行为理论模型。在此基础上,通过基于均值漂移的Gibbs抽样对所有变量进行结构突变诊断及实证检验,发现了农村消费行为中存在着显著的城乡联动机制及其重要影响因素。主要研究结论表明:诊断出的结构突变表明存在城镇对农村消费行为显著的"示范性"影响作用;农村消费行为中的预防性储蓄动机效应和攀附效应可以通过城乡联动机制表现出来;七类消费支出中的重要结构突变大小体现出城镇对农村的影响力度及其方向。建立起长久而有效的城镇"示范性"效应机制是有效启动农村消费的重要途径和措施。

This paper analyzes rural consumption struetural of China through building a model with demonstrating function and tests all the involved variables using Gibbs sampling on random level-shift model. We found the important factors accounting for rural consumption behavior, Through analyzing, we conclude： the structural changes indicate that the influence of urban consumption behavior on the rural has changed; rural preventive saving motivation can be explained by Urban-rural linkage mechanism; the important structural changes of seven consumption variables can indicate the degree of urban influence on rural behavior.