习惯形成下的农户缓冲储备行为

Rural Households' Buffer-stock Saving with Habit Formation

本文在缓冲储备储蓄理论中引入了消费习惯因素,并利用1992—2005年中国25个省的农村住户调查数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)习惯形成和收入不确定性都是影响中国农户消费行为的重要解释变量。(2)习惯形成参数越大,边际消费倾向就越低,即习惯形成下的消费行为类似于谨慎导致的消费行为。(3)较高的储蓄率增强了家庭抵御风险的能力。因此,消费的惯性越强,收入不确定性对消费的影响就越小。(4)不包含习惯形成因素的缓冲储备模型严重低估了农户的谨慎和耐心。这是因为,如果消费具有惯性,家庭就会有更高的财富目标。

This paper incorporates buffer-stock saving model with habit formation and the data of rural households in China＇s 25 provinces from 1992 to 2005 are used for an empirical study. Estimated results show that： 1. Both of habit formation and income uncertainty are important explanatory variables for rural households＇ consumption behavior. 2. The larger habit formation parameter becomes, the lower MPC is. That means consumer behavior under habit formation is similar to the behavior induced by prudence. 3. In addition, high saving rate also increases ability to resist risk, so the stronger habit is, the less income uncertainty will influence consumption. 4. Buffer-stock saving model without habit formation largely underestimated rural households＇ prudence and patience, for households will have higher wealth targets if their consumption follows a habit.