酒泉市耕地变化的驱动力研究及多元线性回归预测

Study on the Driving Forces of Cultivated Land and Multiple Linear Regression the Prediction

通过对酒泉市耕地的动态变化分析,得出影响酒泉市耕地变化的因素是自然因素和社会经济因素。自然因素中水资源居首位,采用主成分分析方法对影响耕地面积变化的社会经济因素进行分析、归纳、总结为人口增长和经济发展、农耕业现代化水平2个方面,同时对耕地面积变化及其影响因子的关系进行分析。最后运用多元线性回归建立耕地动态变化与社会驱动因子的多元线性回归方程,以期为酒泉市耕地合理使用提供一些理论依据。

By analyzing the dynamic changes of cultivated land in Jiuquan City, it was found that the factors of influencing the cultivated land changes were the natural and economic factors. Of the former, water resource was the major component. With the method of Principal Component Analysis, the social economic factors of influencing cultivated land were the two aspects ： population growth and modern level of farming cultivation. At the same time the relatives of cultivated land area＇s changes and influencing factors were analyzed. In the end, the multiple linear regression was used to build the multiple linear equation of cultivated land changes and social driving force factors in order to provide some theoretical basis for reasonable use of cultivated land.