浙江省酸雨的空间分布格局及其未来变化趋势预测

Spatial distribution and forecast of acid rain in Zhejiang province

利用浙江省1992、2002年的酸雨监测数据,并利用RAINS-ASIA模型模拟了1990—2030年浙江省酸雨前体物(SO2)的排放量,以及酸沉降超临界负荷面积占研究区域面积比例的变化情况。结果表明,浙江省的酸雨分布范围不断扩大、危害程度不断加重;未来一个时期内,SO2排放量都会维持在较高的水平;酸沉降超临界负荷面积所占比例在经历较快的增长阶段之后,会维持在较为恒定的水平,并呈现出明显的时滞性。

Spatial distributions of pH of the average annual precipitations for two periods （1992 and 2002） were first established using monitoring data and interpolations. RAINS-ASIA model was employed for predicting annual SO2 emission and area of higher emission than critical loading of the local ecosystem for cases with and without emission control. The data and simulation results show that the area of acid rain in Zhejiang will continue to expand due to lower pH of the precipitations,that the SO2 emission rates will stay at a relatively high level for a long period of time even with control,and that the area beyond critical loading would go through a phase of rapid growth up to 2000 before leveling off with a notable time delay in the recovery process.