农村水资源短缺：现状、趋势及其对作物种植结构的影响--基于全国10个省调查数据的实证分析

Situation,Trend and Its Impacts on Cropping Pattern of Water Shortage in the Rural Areas: Empirical Analysis Based on Ten Provinces' Field Survey in China

论文利用全国10个省面板数据对中国农村水资源短缺的现状、趋势及对作物种植结构的影响做实证分析。研究发现,无论是对水资源短缺进行总体判断,还是从灌溉水源、供水可靠性和地下水位变动趋势等其它方面进行分析,水资源短缺状况都不容忽视,而且这一趋势在加重。水资源越短缺,农民就越可能倾向于种植对灌溉依赖程度低、需水量小的作物,尤其是豆类作物。

Applying the panel data from field survey in 10 provinces, this paper empirically analyzes the situation and trend of water shortages in rural China, and identifies the impacts of water shortage on cropping patterns. Research results show that either based on the overall judgment or through analyzing several other indicators, such as the water sources of irrigation, water supply reliability and the changes of groundwater table, water shortage cannot be ignored. In addition, over time water has become shorter. With increasing water shortage, farmers tend to plant those crops that have less intensive irrigation requirement, especially for beans.