基于可拓理论的泥石流灾害预警预报系统开发:以北京市为例

Development of the Debris Flow Forecasting System Based on Extension Theory:A Case Study of Beijing

泥石流是北京山区主要的地质灾害,北京市于2003年启动了地质灾害气象预警预报工作,但近几年的预报效果并不理想。为进一步提高泥石流灾害预警预报的准确性,选取地形、地层岩性、地质构造和植被作为基础因子,以北京市地质灾害易发分区为响应因子,以降雨作为诱发因子,根据各因子与泥石流灾害的相关性分析,采用层次分析法(AHP)计算各因子的权重系数,提出了基于可拓理论的泥石流预警预报模型,并通过G IS系统和IDL开发平台实现准确预报。利用20组历史上北京地区发生的泥石流雨量资料对建立的预警预报模型进行验证,结果表明模型预报结果与实际情况基本吻合。研究成果对于提高北京市泥石流灾害预警预报水平,减少人民生命和财产损失具有重要的意义。

Debris flow is the main geological disaster in the mountainous area of Beijing. The geological disaster control and forecasting system of Beijing was put forward in 2003, but the forecasting system was not proved to be ideal. In order to improve the result accuracy of the forecasting system, this paper set up a new disaster forecasting model through extension theory and AHP. The factors of terrain, stratum, geological structure, and vegetation were selected as the basic influence factors. The disaster factor was selected as respond factor, and precipitation was selected as the trigger factor. The significance coefficients of the six basic factors were computed by AHP method. At last, the forecasting system of debris flow was set up through the extension theory and GIS system. Then the established model was validated through twenty historic debris flow events. The results show that the forecasting system has high accuracy, so this research plays a vital role in the geological disaster control and forecasting system of Beijing.