单车道行人激进过街冲突和碰撞事故机理分析

Mechanism Analysis on Conflicts and Collisions Caused by Aggressive Pedestrian Crossing Single Lane

利用交通冲突技术,研究了单车道行人激进过街时与机动车之间的碰撞事故机理;以此为基础建立了单车道人-车冲突和碰撞事故概率模型。然后采用贝叶斯全概率公式求出具体的概率值。计算结果表明行人激进过街方式交通违规行为是人-车冲突和事故的主要原因之一;车流量、瞬时车速、驾驶员反应时间也是事故发生的重要因素。这些研究成果将不仅为交叉口和路段行人交通安全管制措施的合理实施提供依据,也为预防人-车事故发生的车载智能交通系统开发和行人过街安全仿真模拟提供了解决思路。

According to traffic conflict technique, the mechanism of pedestrian-vehicle conflict and collision is studied when aggressive pedestrians cross the single lane, and the probability models of single-lane pedestrian-vehicle conflict and collision are established. Then the specific probability values are calculated by the Bayesian statistics. The calculation out- comes show that the aggressive crossing pattern is one of the primary reasons for the pedestrian-vehicle conflict and colli- sion; the vehicle volume, instant velocity, reflection time are also the ingredients for crash. The research results will provide not only the references for the reasonable implement of traffic regulations measures on pedestrians＇ safety at the intersection and segment, but also the thought to develop the in-vehicle ITS against the pedestrian-vehicle crash and to simulate the safety of pedestrians crossing street.