地球系统模式发展展望

A perspective on earth system model development

在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段:物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助。

This paper describes the three phases involved in the development of an ultimate Earth System Model （ESM）, from physical climate system model （the fundamental phase） to Earth climate system model （the transitional phase） and finally to ESM （the prototype phase）, based on reviews of existing literature. The authors emphasize the strategic significance for establishing such ESM and introduce some scientific research plans on the development of ESM at home and abroad. They also provide a perspective on the future development of ESM based on current status and trends of the models that participated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with the hope to guide future development of ESM in China.