模糊故障树分析方法

A METHOD TO MULTISTATE FUZZY FAULTTREE ANALYSIS

传统的故障树分析方法没有考虑事件发生概率的模糊性，为了克服这一缺点，本文用正态模糊数来描述故障树中底事件的模糊概率，导出具有普遍性的顶事件模糊概率和底事件模糊概率重要度的简单计算公式，并分析它们的误差。结果表明，这些公式具有很高的精度，具有工程实用价值。

Conventional fault tree analysis does not give a picture concerning the fuzziness of the probability values of events.To overcome this shortcoming,this paper expresses the fuzzy probabilities of events with the normal number,and deduces out the simple and general formulas for fuzzy probability of the top event and fuzzy probability importances of basic events.The result of error analysis shows that those formulas are of high precision and valuable for engineering application.