小额贷款风险影响因素的关系结构分析

A Study of Relative Structure On Influence Factors of Microfinance Risk

本文首先运用Delphi法和系统工程原理筛选并确定了小额贷款风险的14个影响因素,然后应用解释结构模型分析各影响因素的关系结构,结果表明,贷款人文化程度、贷款数额、产品市场现状、产品发展潜力、贷款有无担保、贷款人技术和能力、贷款人经营水平、贷款人信用状况和贷款人家庭收支状况是小额贷款风险的表层直接影响因素,贷款用途、贷款期限和贷款人经营思路是中层间接影响因素,贷款利率和政府对小额贷款的支持力度是深层根本影响因素。这些研究结果对于科学识别小额贷款风险有着重要意义。

With the application of 'Delphi theory' and 'System Engineering theory',fourteen influence factors of microfi-nance risk are selected and determined.After that,the relative structure of fourteen influence factors is analyzed by using interpretive structural model.The results show that lender’s education level,amount of loan,market situation of product,development potentiality of product,loan guarantee,lender’s skill and ability,lender’s management,lender’s credit status,and lender’s family budget are superficial and direct influence factors;loan use,loan term,and lender’s business thoughts are intermediate and indirect influence factors;loan rate and government support are essential and basic influence factors.These research results are significant for our correctly identifying microfinance risk.