上海天然气市场需求模型构建与计量分析

Econometric analysis and modeling on residential demand of natural gas in Shanghai

随着天然气工程的相继建成,上海天然气市场进入了一个快速发展期。天然气未来的需求将直接影响市场能否稳步健康的发展以及相关发展战略的制定。计量经济学的优势在于能够构建出比单独使用横截面数据或时间序列数据更为真实的行为方程。为此,根据计量经济学原理,针对天然气市场需求建立了计量函数模型,并以2000～2007年上海市的相关统计数据为依据进行了实例分析,得出了全市生产总值、替代能源价格及天然气价格的天然气需求弹性系数,并根据该模型预测了2008～2015年上海市天然气市场的需求量,为上海市天然气市场中长期供需平衡的分析与研究提供了依据。

Since many natural gas projects have been completed in succession,natural gas market in Shanghai has entered into a stage of fast development.The future demand of natural gas will have direct effect on the gas market and the related development strategy.The econometrics is adopted better than cross section data or times series data to build up a more real behavior equation.Therefore,in light of the theory of econometrics,this study set up a measurement function model on the natural gas demand.Using this model,cases of study were carried out on the statistical data from natural gas demand of Shanghai from 2000 to 2007,and the elasticity indexes of natural gas residential demand were obtained including the GDP,the price of alternative energy,and the price of natural gas.By this model,the demand of natural gas in Shanghai during the time from 2008 to 2015 was forecasted,which provides a reference for researchers and market observers to analyze and study on the supply and demand balance in the medium and long term of natural gas market in Shanghai.