基于GM(1，1)改进模型的建筑物沉降预测

Accurate Estimation of Building Deformation Based on Improved Grey GM(1,1) Model

针对现代高层建筑进行沉降观测,对其未来的变形趋势进行准确地预测具有重要的意义。针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型存在的模型精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种同时优化背景值和初始条件的GM(1,1)改进模型,并将其应用于对建筑物的沉降变形进行定量分析与即时预报。通过与原始模型和其他模型的对比分析可以发现,本文所研究的改进模型在精度上有了显著的提高,更加适用于基础沉降的预测,具有很好的工程应用价值。

It is very important for accurately estimating the modern building deformation. Aimed at the shortage of the traditional grey GM（1,1） model, an improved model is presented. The model can synchronously optimize background value and original conditions, it is used to analyze and predict the deformation of buildings quantificationally. Compared with other models, the conclusion can be drawn that the improved model can improve the precision, thus it is suitable for the foundation subsidence prediction.