基于投入产出表和社会核算矩阵的2002年江苏旅游乘数的比较研究

A Comparative Study on Jiangsu Tourism Multiplier in 2002 Based on the Input-output Table and Social Accounting Matrix

本文在界定投入产出乘数、SAM乘数的概念和方法、对旅游乘数分析与旅游活动对地区经济贡献研究进行概述的基础上,首先构建了2002年27部门江苏投入产出表,其次,构建了包括38个内生账户、4个外生账户的2002年江苏旅游细化社会核算矩阵。最后,本文基于投入产出开模型、局部闭模型和SAM分别计算了产业的产出乘数、居民收入乘数、就业乘数和增加值乘数。数据显示,2002年江苏旅游产出乘数分别为2.2517、2.8896、3.8758,旅游就业乘数分别为0.1694、0.1900、0.2157,旅游居民收入乘数分别为0.5805、0.6927和0.8433,旅游增加值乘数分别为1、1.2189、1.5737。与其他产业相比,江苏旅游的产出乘数、居民收入乘数、就业乘数和增加值乘数较大。

The paper, after defining the input-output multiplier and SAM multiplier concept and method, first constructs input-output table for 27 sectors in Jiangsu in 2002, and then sets up a social accounting matrix which consists of 38 endogenous accounts and 4 exogenous accounts. Finally, based on input-output open model, partial closed model and SAM, the paper calculates output multiplier of the industtry, residents＇ income multiplier, employment and value-added multiplier respectively. The data show that tourism output muhiflier in Jiangsu Province in 2002 was 2.2517,2.8896, 3. 8758 respectively and tourism employment multiflier was 0. 1694, 0.9100,02157 respectively and residents＇ income muhiflier from tourism was 0.5805, 0.6927 and 0.8433 respectively. Tourism value-added multiflier was 1.2189 and 1.5737 respectively. Compared with other industries, all these multifliers in Jiangsu are greater.