预期与国际油价

Projections and world oil prices

随着美国次贷危机演化为金融危机进而波及实体经济,石油价格大幅波动。预期的变化在投机因素的推动下加剧了油价的波动。对美元汇率波动、次贷危机恶化、美国政治转向以及中国题材淡化的预期,都影响着国际油价。在当前国际油价较低的情况下,中国应抓住机遇,建立完善的石油储备体系,利用充足的外汇储备,通过参股、合作、收购等方式,扩大对世界石油市场的影响力,与此同时,降低国内石油市场的准入门槛,加快国内国际油价的接轨,以税制改革推动节能减排。

As the U.S. subprime loan crisis evolved into a financial crisis, which in turn spread to the real economy, oil prices fluctuated dramatically. This trend was only intensified by a series of shifting projections based on speculative factors. Projections of fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, the worsening of the subprime loan crisis, shifts in U.S. politics, and waning controversy over Chinese issues all influenced world oil prices. For China, today’s low prices present a valuable opportunity to build a comprehensive oil reserve system. Furthermore, China should take advantage of its massive foreign currency reserves to broaden its influence on the world oil market through equity shares, partnerships and acquisitions. Meanwhile, the nation must also lower the threshold for its domestic oil market, align domestic oil prices with international levels, and reform the tax system to promote energy conservation and emissions reduction.