全球金融危机深化 中国经济增长“保八”--2008-2009年宏观经济金融走势分析与展望

Global Financial Crisis Deepens, China Struggles for 8% GDP Growth——Analysis and Outlook of Macro-economic and Financial Trend from 2008 to 2009

2009年,发达经济体陷入全面衰退已成定局,新兴市场经济增速也将显著放缓。受外需继续大幅收缩的影响,中国出口形势非常严峻,实际投资增速及工业增长形势也不容乐观。同时,2009年尤其是上半年中国的通缩既表现在信贷需求走低等金融层面,也表现在社会供求失衡导致产能过剩的实体经济层面。2009年宏观调控将立足于扩大内需,防止经济过快过大下滑,"保八"成为第一要务。商业银行应在加强信贷支持的同时加强信贷风险管理,严防贷款质量大幅下滑,同时注重防范流动性风险,提高资金运营效益。

Developed economies will fall into comprehensive recession and the economic growth of emerging market will markedly slow down in 2009. Affected by the sharp decrease of foreign demand, China faces severe export situation, and the growth of real investment and industrial output is far from optimistic. In 2009, especially the first half of the year, China＇s deflation reflects in both the financial level, such as the decreasing credit demand, and the real economy, represented by the over-capacity of industrial output resulting from imbalance between social demand and supply. The macro-control in 2009 will take expanding domestic demand as the basis and prevent the economy from declining too fast and sharply, so ensuring the 8% GDP growth comes into the first priority. Commercial banks must reinforce credit risk management during the course of augmenting credit support to escape the sharp decline of loan quality. Moreover, commercial banks must pay more attention to the liquidity risk and improve the operational earnings of funds.