基于拐点理论的旅游地生命周期预警效应分析

Tourist Destination Life Cycle Early Warning System Research Based on "Inflection Point" Theory

旅游经济的发展带动了地区经济的发展,但旅游地本身的发展客观上又受到生命周期的局限。旅游地生命周期发展受到多重因素的影响,并且很难排除人为因素带来的偏差,客观上要求对旅游地生命周期预警系统进行量化研究。基于此,本文以"拐点"理论、旅游地生命周期理论为基础,通过分析旅游地生命周期中"拐点"特征和旅游地发展水平变化的趋势分析,将影响旅游地生命周期变化的因素用数学模型来表示,使定性分析与定量分析相结合,构建旅游地生命周期预警系统,并对预警的原理和预警的类型进行分析,从而提高了旅游地生命周期预警效应的科学性、准确性和客观性,即通过对旅游地发展速度的正确分析与预测,得出不同类型警情旅游预警信号,为旅游地可持续发展提供预警方法和保障。

This paper takes the inflection point theory, the tourist destination life cycle theory as a foundation, and analyzes characteristics of the inflection point in destination life cycle and tendency of tourist destination development.＇Ihis paper will attempt to uses mathematical model to represent factors that affect tourist destination life cycle and combine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to construct a traveling life cycle early warning system. The paper also analyzes theory and type of early warning, thus improving scientificalness and objectivity of the warning system. Through correct analysis and forest of tourist destination development, the paper obtains early warning signals of tourism in different types and provides early warning method and guidances to sustainable development of tourist destination.