货币需求、货币溢出与通货膨胀:基于中国货币现象的实证检验

Money Demand,Money Overflow and Inflation:Empirical Study on Monetary Economy in China

根据所承担的职能,本文将货币分为贮藏货币和交易货币,认为通货膨胀会通过费雪效应导致贮藏货币向交易货币的溢出,而这一溢出又会通过交易方程式机制加剧通货膨胀,这就形成了一个动态循环机制。本文在设置了一个贮藏-交易货币转移方程的基础上,构建了一个关于通货膨胀的动态模型,考察了这一循环机制,发现如果货币溢出的通货膨胀弹性足够大,就会使得通货膨胀走向发散。通过实证检验,我们发现我国虽仍具有刚性的储蓄倾向,但是近期的通货膨胀已经造成了贮藏货币向交易货币的溢出,而这种溢出如果不能被抑制,则很可能会进一步加剧通货膨胀,形成一种恶性循环。同时也提醒我们,如果存在经济衰退预期,交易货币会被贮藏货币吸收而造成通货紧缩。

The paper divides money into storing money and trading money, which transfer from each other with the affection of inflation by Fisher Effect. Inflation leads to the storing money overflow, at the same time the overflow enhances the inflation. We set up a dynamic model of inflation on the storing-trading money transfer function, and find that if the elasticity of money overflow to inflation is strong enough, the inflation would go higher and higher. Empirically we find saving preference is still rigid in China, however recently inflation arose the overflow from storing money to trading money. If the overflow is not eontrolled, it would enhance the inflation, which leads to a vicious circle. At the same time, depression expectation would leads to transfer from the storing money to the trading money, which would generate deflation.