外资银行进入中国市场的时机选择研究

Study on the Timing Choice of Foreign Banks Entering Chinese Market

本文运用生存模型,实证检验了外资银行进入中国市场的时机确定及其影响因素,结果发现,规模越大、资本量越充足及对中国市场的经验越丰富的外资银行越早进入中国市场;同时外资银行母国对中国的投资规模越大、与中国的双边贸易额越高,外资银行越早进入中国市场。另外,研究还发现亚洲地区的银行业进入中国市场并没有明显的先行优势。

The paper sets up the choice model of foreign banks entry timing based on Real- Option theory, analyses the timing choice of foreign banks entering in Chinese market and reasons based on survival model empirically. The result shows that the foreign banks enter in Chinese market in three phrases ,and the more assets, more capitals and more experiences, the foreign banks enter in Chinese market more early .Also, the research finds that the FDI and the trade between the origin countries of the foreign banks and China are greater, the foreign banks enter in Chinese market more early. In addition, the empirical result shows that the Asian banking have no clear pro-active advantages to enter in Chinese market.