摘要
本文论述了4万亿经济刺激方案出台的现实背景,给出了我国宏观政策与美国金融危机对中国经济影响的作用机理。基于对4万亿投资的具体分解,利用投入产出闭模型定量测算获得,4万亿投资对我国GDP的拉动总效应为64489亿元,并详细论述了投资对我国GDP拉动具有六年的时滞效应特征。最后对中国经济未来的发展趋势进行了预测。
This paper analyzes the background of China＇s four-trillion economic stimulus plan. Then a mechanism analysis of how China＇s macro-policy and America＇s financial crisis affect China＇s economy is followed. Based on concrete decomposition of the fourtrillion investment, with input-output partial-closed model technique, the paper quantitatively estimates that the gross effect of fourtrillion investments on China＇s GDP is 6.4489 trillion yuan. This paper also discusses the six-year time lag effect of GDP growth from investment. Future trend of China＇s economy is forecasted in the end.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第2期98-104,共7页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70473072
70773091)。
关键词
次贷危机
经济政策
4万亿
GDP
投入产出
sub-prime mortgage loan crisis, economic policy, four-trillion economic stimulus plan, GDP, Input-Output
