气候变化与人类活动对石羊河流域地下水动态变化的影响

Groundwater Dynamic Evolution Under Climatic Change and Human Activites in Shiyang River Basin

从石羊河流域地下水循环的角度,分析了多年气候和人类活动的变化趋势及对地下水动态的影响;运用主成分回归法对影响民勤盆地地下水位动态变化的气候和人类活动因素进行了耦合分析,定量研究了其影响力。研究结果表明:近45a来,流域平均气温呈现升高趋势,降水量略有增加,蒸发量为波动增加趋势;人类活动通过扩大灌溉面积,提高渠系衬砌率,大量开采地下水改变着地下水的补排条件,人为因素在民勤盆地地下水位动态变化过程中起主导作用,占总影响力的79.12%。受气候变化和人类活动共同作用的影响,流域平原区地下水位大幅度下降,生态环境趋于恶化。

This article analyzes the trends of human activities and climate change for many years from the view of Shiyang River Basin groundwater circulation. Using the principal component regression analysis to analyze the effect and get the contribution rate of climatic change and human activites on groundwater in Minqin Basin. The results show the average annual temperature and the average rainfall for many years have a slight increase. The average evaporation increased in volatility. Human activities are changing the groundwater-row conditions through expanding irrigated area, improving the canal system lining and exploiting groundwater. The anthropogenic factor plays a leading role in groundwater resources variation in recent 50 years, and its effect accounts for 79.12% of the total effect. Under climatic change and human activies, the groundwater table is increasing, and the ecological environment is worsening.