珠江三角洲地区耕地资源紧缺态势分析

Analysis on State of Insufficiency of Cultivated Land in the Pearl River Delta

利用1980-2004年珠江三角洲地区耕地面积及相关社会经济统计数据,分析了该区耕地资源时空动态变化规律。运用多元线性回归分析方法构建耕地变化回归模型,并结合人均口粮需求量预测法,预测该区2015年耕地保有量和最低需求量,结果表明该区耕地资源紧缺态势不容乐观。最后对如何保护该区的耕地资源提出了两点建议。

The authors discuss the dynamic changing and spatial difference of cultivated land change in the Pearl River Delta according to the statistical and survey data between 1980--2004. By using regressive multianalysis equation and per demand of foodstuff, the prediction and the minimum demand for cultivated land in the Pearl River Delta are done till 2015. The results show the trends of decrease will continue and the contradiction between human and cultivated land will exacerbate. Finally, the authors put forward some advice for cultivated land protection.