宝鸡市城乡建设用地规模灰色系统模型预测

Study on Forecasting Grey System Model of Rural-urban Construction Land in Baoji City

针对宝鸡2002—2007年城乡建设用地动态变化的特点和规律，根据灰色关联度，分析了宝鸡市城乡建设用地规模的驱动因子。结果表明，总人口因素的相关性最大；用灰色系统理论建立GM（1，1）预测模型，预测了2010和2020年宝鸡建设用地的变化情况，为宝鸡市合理利用土地，实现土地资源的可持续利用提供参考。

On the basis of rural-urban construction land data and statistics do of society and economy from 2002 to 2007 in Baoji City, the grey correlation analysis was carried out to analyze driving factors of constructive land scale in Baoji City. The results showed that total population act as the main driving factors would affect rural-urban construction land enlargement. The change and trend of construction land use in Baoji City would forecast according to forecasting model established with Grey System Theory, which will provide reference for better utilization lancl resources.