基于生态足迹的南宁市生态安全演变对气候变暖的响应

Response of Ecological Security Evolution to Climatic Warming in Nanning City Based on Ecological Footprint

近50多年来南宁市气候变化总趋势是逐渐变暖,20世纪80年代中期开始变暖明显,增幅加大。对气候变暖明显的近20年,根据生态足迹理论方法测算了南宁市历年的生态足迹,对南宁市生态安全的现状和发展趋势做出了评价。结果表明,南宁市生态安全处于不可持续发展状态,而且随着气候变暖引起的旱涝灾害日趋分布不均,人均耕地和人均化石能源地的生态承载力将越来越小,环境压力不断加大,如果不引起足够重视,势必给城市的社会经济发展及生态环境改善带来不利影响。

Based on the theory of ecological footprint, this study aimed to measure the yearly EF of Nanning City and evaluate its status quo and development trend. The results showed that the eco-security in Nanning was not sustainable and the ecological footprint would quickly increase and the ecological carrying capacity decrease as the drought and flood disasters grow more irregular because of-global warming; the environmental pressure get more serious, which would become harmful to the social economy development and ecological environment if was not paid enough attention to.