股票市场正相关影响通货膨胀的路径分析

Analysis of the Positive Effect of Stock Market on Inflation

股票市场与通货膨胀的变动关系主要有四种:通货膨胀正相关影响股市;通货膨胀负相关影响股市;股市负相关影响通货膨胀;股市正相关影响通货膨胀。之前对于两者的变动研究得出的结论主要是负相关。1992-2008年中国股票市场与通货膨胀的数据显示,在06年以前二者在趋势上基本呈负相关。但是,06年至今两者呈现出了滞后正相关的变动关系,并且是CPI滞后于股票市场同向波动。本文通过对股票市场参与结构的历史比较,总结出了股票市场正相关影响通货膨胀的路径。

There are four kinds of relationship between stock market and inflation： inflation positively affects the stock market; inflation is negatively correlated with stock market; the stock market is negatively correlated with inflation; and the stock market is positively correlated with inflation.The conclusions of the previous researches on this relation focused on the negative correlation. The data of Chinese stock market and inflation from 1992 to 2008 illustrates that the correlation before 2006 is negative.However,the empirical data from 2006 to 2008 of Shanghai Stock Index and the Consumer Price Index show positive relationship between them and CPI follows the stock market with same trend. By historical comparison to the partcipation structure of stock market, the paper concludes that the stock market has positive effects on inflation.