中国GDP增量与能源消费增量关系的多尺度分析

Analysis on Correlation of the Increase of GDP and Energy Consumption in China Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition Method

能源是一个国家经济增长和社会发展的重要物质基础,经济的发展和能源的利用有着密不可分的关系。本文用EMD方法首次对我国GDP增量和能源消费增量之间的关系进行比较分析,以期从一个崭新的途径上来揭示GDP增量波动周期与能源消费增量波动周期的相互关系,进而揭示GDP和能源消费之间的关系,从而为社会经济的长远规划、能源发展战略以及有关政策法规的制定提供一定依据。研究结果表明:我国GDP增量的波动周期为4年、11年、18年和31年;能源消费增量的波动周期为4年、10年、18年和27年,两者的波动周期基本吻合。将他们的IMF分量进行对比,发现能源消费和GDP二者是相互依赖的,这一结论符合经济学的理论,能源的需求促进经济的发展,而能源的发展要以经济增长为前提,能源的短缺将制约经济的发展。因此,千方百计增加能源供给,提高能源利用效率,是确保我国经济持续稳定发展的一项重要任务。

The energy is the important material foundation of a country＇s economic growth, and social development, economic development and energy use are closely related. EMD method is used for the first time to comparatively analyze the correlation of the increase of energy consumption and that of GDP in China. This paper tries to find out the correlation of the fluctuations between them in new ways. It reveals the relationship between energy consumption and GDP. Consequently, this will provide us some reference to the long-term socio-economic planning, energy development strategy and the formulation of relevant policies and regulations. The result shows that the increase of GDP reveals the time-scale fluctuations of about 4 years, 11 years, 18 years and 31 years. The increase of energy consumption reveals the time-scale fluctuations of about 4 years, 10 years, 18 years and 27 years, and the cycles of them match basically. We make a comparative analysis of their IMFs, and discover that energy consumption and GDP are interdependent. The conclusion shows that the theory of economics, energy consumption can advance economic growth, and energy development should take economic growth as the prerequisite. The shortage of energy will constraint on economic development. Therefore, using every means to increase energy supply and improve efficiency of energy use would be a major task to ensure China＇s sustainable and stable economic development.