江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制

Influencing Mechanism of Spatio-Temporal Variation of Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

利用1999-2006年县域统计数据,借助面板数据模型,对江苏省粮食生产时空变化的影响机制进行了系统分析。结果表明:粮食播种面积是影响粮食生产时空变化的相对活跃因素;城镇化、工业化因素通过比较经济效益对全省粮食生产产生一定程度的负向影响;粮食生产支持政策对全省粮食生产恢复起到积极作用,并且这一支持政策对三大地区、不同收入水平地区的粮食生产促进效应存在差异,体现在对苏北、低收入地区的促进作用较强,而对苏南、相对高收入地区的促进作用较弱。鉴于江苏省粮食生产的时空变化和政策效应的区域差异,适应此特征的粮食生产发展战略和补贴政策设计需及时响应。以统筹城乡和区域发展为契机,减少耕地非农占用,优化土地资源城乡配置,加强农业基础设施建设,完善和强化粮食补贴机制,有助于促进江苏粮食生产持续发展与供需平衡。

Food security is an extremely important factor which affects the regional and national socio-economic stability and development. By using county level statistic data from 1999 to 2006, this paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of spatio-temporal variation of grain production in Jiangsu Province based on panel data model. The results showed that： （1） grain planting area was a relatively active influencing factor on spatio-temporal variation of grain production in the study area; （2） urbanization and industrialization had a negative effect on grain production; and （3） agricultural policies which were devoted to promote grain production played an active role in the recovery phase. Moreover, the effects of these policies were different in southern, middle and northern Jiangsu and regions with different income levels of rural households. In detail, the effects on northern Jiangsu and regions with low income level were statistically significant but that on southern Jiangsu and regions with high income level were not the case. In view of the spatio-temporal variation of grain production and regional difference of policy effect, the development strategy of grain production and subsidy policy design should make a quick response. The macroscopic strategy of integrating urban-rural development and regional development provides an opportunity for improving the grain production and supply-demand balance of Jiangsu Province. Thus, for this purpose, the local government should protect the scarce farmland energetically, optimize the allocation of rural-urban land resources, strengthen agricultural infrastructure construction, and improve the subsidy policy of grain production.