摘要
采用多元回归和通径分析方法评价水稻暂黄病的预测因子。6月下旬至7月下旬黑尾叶蝉发生量是测报的关键因素;冬春日均温、4日份日均温和上一年黑尾叶蝉发生量是测报的主要因子。根据后3个因子分别在春播期、5月初做出长期、中期预测;在8月初则可根据4个因子做出短期预测。本文揭示了多地区多年资料的综合分析途径,评价了通径分析在病害测报中的应用,提出了积年流行、间歇性暴发病害的测报变量处理方式。
Multiple linear regression and path analysis were used to infer the rice transitory yellowing epidemic data investigated in the 5 counties northwest of Fujian.Data processing indicated that the amount of emerging insect vectors from June 21 to July 31 is the critical factor in forecasting. The temperature fluctuation between winter and spring seasons,the tempe- rature fluctuation in April and the amount of emerging insect vectors in preceding year are the major forecasting factors.Three regression equations have been derived to detect rice transitory yellowing epidemic for long-range, midde-range and short-range,respectively.This paper deals with how to process the data obtained from different areas,makes a detail interpretation on applying path analysis to evaluate forecasting factors and gives a unique variable-treat method in polyetic epidemic.
基金
国家自然科学资金
关键词
水稻
暂黄病
预测
通径分析
rice tr nsitory yellowing
epidemic forecasting
path analysis
