中国能源消耗变动影响因素的结构分解

The Structure Decomposition Analysis of Factors Influencing Energy Consumption Change in China

随着中国经济的快速增长,能源消耗也大幅度增加,如何有效节能降耗,实现能源与经济的可持续发展是当前全人类关注的一个重要课题。本文基于投入产出分析的基本原理,推导能源消耗变动的一种前沿性结构分解分析形式,将能源消耗变动分解为能源强度变动、技术进步变动和最终需求变动3种影响因素。利用中国1997年和2002年的投入产出数据表数据首先测度不同因素对能源消耗总量变动的影响程度,然后分别测算28个行业的3种影响因素变动对煤炭、石油、天然气和电消耗变动的贡献与特点,结果发现:能源强度变动并没有使所有行业能源消耗都减少;技术进步导致所有行业的每种能源消耗之和都是增加的;28个行业中,最终需求变动的方向与四种能源消耗变动的方向完全一致。最后针对实证结果提出了节能降耗的政策建议。

Energy consumption is increasing to a great extent with the fast economic growth in China. It is an important question for the whole human being that how to save energy and decrease consumption and how to realize the persist development of energy and economy. Therefore, it is of significant theory value and actual meaning to discuss the influence mechanism. This paper uses two-pole decomposition analysis method to decompose the energy change of China into the change of energy intensity, the change of technology progress and the change of final demand based the I-O theory. According to the I-O table data from 1997 to 2002, the paper calculates the influential degree of three factors upon total energy consumption. Experience analysis result indicates that the improvement of energy efficiency decreases energy input directly or indirectly; technology improvement and the change of final demand result in the increase of energy input; the positive effect of technology and final demand exceeds the negative effect of energy consumption intensity. As a result, total energy consumption of all kinds in 2002 is more than that in 1997. At the same time, the paper calculates the congratulation and the characteristic of three affecting factors of twenty-eight industries to coal, petroleum, gas and electricity consumption. As a result, energy intensity change would not reduce energy consumption in all industries while technology progress can increase the sum of energy consumption of all industries. The changing direction of final demand is consistent with consumption of four kinds of energy in the twenty-eight industries. At last, we put forward policies to save energy and decrease consumption at four aspects. The first policy is to deploy energy consumption structure in reason. The second policy is to optimize industrial structure. The third policy is to develop environment friendly energy with great effort. The fourth policy is to exert the function of the government in energy conservation and consumption reduction.