中国煤炭资源开发的潜力评价与开发战略

Assessment of Exploitation Potential and Strategyof Coal Resource in China

本文在分析中国煤炭资源空间赋存格局和1952年～2005年中国煤炭资源开发的时空格局演变的基础上,综合考虑各省区煤炭资源的开发历史、生态环境的脆弱程度和社会经济发展状况,依据开发潜力指数(EP)法对中国煤炭资源的开发潜力进行定量评价。研究结果将中国各省区的煤炭资源开发潜力分为4个级别:①开发潜力大的有甘肃、云南、安徽、贵州、山西、宁夏、新疆、青海、陕西和内蒙古共10个省区,其开发战略主要为发挥集聚效应和规模效应,建立大型煤炭基地;②开发潜力较大的有重庆、河北、黑龙江、河南和山东共5个省区,其开发战略主要为接续传统衰老矿区的生产能力,整合资源,关闭小矿井,适度开发大中型矿井,稳步扩大生产规模;③开发潜力一般的有湖南、北京、吉林、四川、江苏、广西、辽宁、江西、福建和湖北共10个省区,其开发战略主要为改造现有矿区,减缓煤炭产量的下降速度,满足当地的煤炭消费需求;④开发潜力较小的有广东、浙江、上海、天津、西藏和海南共6个省区,其煤炭资源量很少,开发条件差、效益低,今后应发挥其产业结构先进和技术进步的优势,大力发展低碳经济,减少煤炭资源消费。本研究成果将为中国可持续发展功能分区研究提供基础信息支持。

Based on the analyses of spatial distribution of amount and quality of coal resources and spatial structure evolution of coal resources exploitation from 1952 to 2005 in China, considering the exploitation history of coal resources, frangibility of ecological environment and the development of regional economy comprehensively, we adopt the method of exploitation potential index to perform quantificational evaluation for the exploitation potential of coal resources in every province of China. The results show that the exploitation potential of coal resources in China can be divided into 4 grades. The first grade has the biggest exploitation potential of coal resources, including Gansu, Yunnan, Anhui, Guizhou, Shanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. These 10 provinces play a crucial role in ensuring the supply safety of China＇ s coal resources. The exploitation strategy in these province is to establish large-scale coal production bases, extend the industry chain of coal resource exploitation and processing, exerting the aggregation and scale effect. At the same time, most of these provinces lie in the west of China, where the ecological environment is very vulnerable. So the core problem they are facing is promoting the harmonious development between coal resource exploitation and ecological environment protection. The second grade has comparatively bigger exploitation potential of coal resources, including Chongqing, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Henan and Shandong. The exploitation strategy in these 5 provinces is to maintain the production capacity of old coal mines, integrate coal resources, close small coal mines, exploit big and medium-sized coal mines rationally and enlarge production scale steadily; The third grade has ordinary exploitation potential of coal resources, including Hunan, Beijing, Jilin, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangxi, Fujian and Hubei., The exploitation strategy in these 10 provinces is to improve existing coal mines, slow down the decreasing speed of coal production and try to satisfy local coal consumption. The fourth grade has low exploitation potential of coal resources, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Tianjin, Xizang and Hainan. These 6 provinces have sparse coal resources with poor exploitation conditions and low benefit, but energy consumption is very high. Therefore, their exploitation strategy is to take advantage of their advanced industrial structure and technology and promote low-carbon economy to reduce coal consumption. In this way, China＇ s coal resources consumption and transport pressure can be relieved and the industrial structure can also be upgraded. The result of the study would provide fundamental support for the research of function zoning for sustainable development in China.