土地经营规模、农村剩余劳动力转移与农民收入关系研究—基于省际面板数据的检验

The Relations of Land Management Scale,Labour Force Immigrant and Farmer Income based on the Panel Data Test

文章从土地经营规模角度,结合农村剩余劳动力转移,探讨适宜我国当前的农民收入增长途径。基于相关研究假设,提出本研究假说,采用1998年～2005年全国30个省市面板数据,以数量经济模型为分析工具,利用固定效应模型,广义最小二乘法(GLS)进行统计检验并对结果进行分析。研究结论认为:①土地的收入效应和替代效应在农村剩余劳动力转移及农民收入增长中发挥着重要作用。替代效应体现土地的社会保障和失业保障功能,在社会保障制度不完善的前提下,与收入效应共同作用形成农户兼业化;②我国的人均土地经营规模与农民人均纯收入呈U型关系,土地经营规模过小或者是处于规模经营水平都可能使农民获得较高的人均纯收入。研究最后指出,从土地政策、户籍制度、社会保障制度等方面进行制度创新是实现农民收入可持续增长的可能途径。

Being faced with the large gap between urban and rural areas, especially the income gap between wageworkers and farmers, we find in this paper that rural labour immigration and farmer＇ s income increase have new opportunities. The purpose of this study is to find ways to improve farmer＇ s income from the view of land scale and rural labour immigration based on three assumptions： 1） When the number of rural labour immigrants increases, farmer＇ s income will increase; 2）Rural labour surplus in China will last for several years; 3）Traditional thought of holding land is rooted in the hearts of farmers for long time. We then advanced the viewpoint in this paper： 1）There is a correlation between land management scale and rural labour immigration. The smaller land management scale is, the more labour immigrants there would be; 2）The smaller land management scale is, the higher average farmer＇ s income would be, because When farmers find that their earnings from planting are lower than wageworker＇ s, they will give up cultivating to look for other work chances. On the contrary, when land scale is excessive, farmers can earn higher income ; 3） No matter the average land management scale is lower or higher, the farmers can get higher income. Following this, the paper used panel data of 30 provinces in 1998~2005 to prove above suppositions. Methods of economic model, GLS were employed. The results indicate： 1） Land income effect and substitution effect influence labour force immigration and farmer＇ s income growth. Land substitution effect is the social security and unemployment insurance. Under present social security system, land income and substitution effect reduce the farmer to a pluralist. Therefore, when the chance of getting a job is uncertain or the laborage is lower than planting, the farmer will go back to their land; 2） In china, the relation between average land scale and farmer＇ s income is a ＂U＂ shape. Both small and large land scale can secure farmers to get higher income. In the last part, the paper put forward two suggestions ： 1 ） Land Use Policy Change. Adjusting land use policy to concentrate land recourse, which can increase land productivity; 2）System Reformation. We should perfect social security and unemployment insurance, establish a social security system which also involves farmers and allow farmer immigration freely so that everyone has a fairly competition.