带时间延迟的因果图迭代推理算法研究

Iterative reasoning algorithm of causality diagram with time delay

针对因果图的时间延迟问题,提出了带时间延迟的因果图推理算法。首先给出因果图迭代推理的初步分析和概念,然后通过哑节点使连接强度保持值不变,提出了时间延迟转换的方法。在此基础提出了一种带时间延迟的因果图迭代推理算法,并分析了算法的时间复杂度。该算法只需要通过矩阵乘法运算,就可以在多项式时间复杂度内实现推理,是一种高效的近似推理算法。最后,用实例展示了该算法推理效果。研究表明,在有时间延迟的情况下,该算法能够有效地实现动态推理,其推理过程严谨,结果符合实际情况。

A reasoning algorithm of causality diagram with time delay is proposed to study the time delay in causality diagram. Firstly, some preliminary analyses and definitions of iterative reasoning of causality diagram are given. Thena a translation method of time delay, which preserves the strength value by using dummy node is given. Then, an iterative reasoning algorithm of TDCD is put forward, and its computational time complexity is analyzed. The iterative reasoning algorithm, which realizes reasoning only through matrix multiplication, is an effective approximating reasoning algorithm for its polynomial time complexity. Lastly, an example demon- strates the effect of the reasoning algorithm. The research shows that the iterative reasoning algorithm is so ef- fective for dynamic reasoning while CD has time delay, its reasoning process is rigorous, and the result coincides with the reality.