基于灰色GM(1,1)的农业机械化水平预测模型

Prediction Model of Agricultural Mechanization Level in China Based on GM(1,1)

根据1986～2005年我国农业机械化综合水平统计数据，并对由于我国耕地面积统计滞后使得在机耕水平计算中存在误差进行了合理分析和修正，结合数据平滑处理，建立了基于灰色GM（1，1）的我国农业机械化综合水平预测模型。通过残差检验和后验差检验方法对预测结果进行了检验，模型拟合精度较好。采用模型对2006年我国农业机械化综合水平值进行预测，结果表现出较高的预测精度，进一步验证了所建模型的可行性。运用该模型对我国2007～2020年间农业机械化综合水平进行预测，结果表明到2020年我国综合机械化水平将达到68％左右。通过定性分析及与其他预测结果比较，模型表现出较好的预测能力。

A GM （1, 1 ） model for quantificational predicting the mechanization level in China was established by integrated gray predicting theory with datum smoothness based on statistical data from the year 1986 to 2005. The GM（1, 1） model fitted well by verified. And prediction precision is available by predict the mechanization level of 2006. A prediction of the mechanization levels from the year 2007 to 2020 was also conducted by the GM（1, 1） model. The result showed that the integrated level of mechanically would reach to 68 percent in the year of 2020. And the model showed better prediction compared with qualitative analysis and other results of prediction.