应用模糊综合评判技术预测马尾松毛虫越冬代发生量

Prediction of Emergence Size of Overwintering Dendrolimus punctatus by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

应用浙江省临海市连续９ａ马尾松毛虫发生面积的调查资料和当地气象资料，根据相关系数法选出预报因子，采用模糊综合评判的６个数学模型预测松毛虫越冬代的发生量。经回报检验，各数学模型预测值与实测值的吻合程度达８８．９％，具有较好的实用价值。

Using the data of emergence area of Dendrolimus punctatus and relevant meteoroligical information for nine years running in Linhai City of Zhejiang Province,based on the forecasting factors slected by the method of correlation coefficients,emergence size of overwintering Dendrolimus punctatus of generations was predicted with six mathematicl models of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The test results of back report showed that the coincidence degree of predicted value and measured value of each mathematical model reached up to 88 9%.