中国基准资本存量研究--基于首次经济普查修订数据

Research on Benchmark Capital Stock of China——Based on Revised Data from 1st Economic Census of China

资本估算研究已是当前中国学术界关注焦点之一,并已迅速积累起了大量文献,但各类估算结果差异很大。提高资本估算质量,既需要改进估算方法,也需要甄选基础数据。基准资本存量是资本估算的逻辑起点与关键环节,深入探讨其估计方法具有重要意义。为此,细致考察各类基准资本存量估计方法,通过对比,论证使用最优一致性方法(OCM)的合理性。在此基础上,运用OCM-PIM(永续盘存法)构建中国资本存量序列。同时,利用首次经济普查修订数据,从折旧率、资本产出比和资本收益率三方面对OCM-PIM估算结果进行验证。结果表明:OCM具有良好的理论性质和很强的可操作性,其估计结果具有较强稳健性;进一步优化OCM基础参数,对提高中国地区和行业资本估算质量具有积极作用。

The paper reviews alternative methods to estimate the benchmark capital stock, especially those used in China. Then we use the optimal consistency method （OCM） to estimate our country＇ s benchmark capital stock and construct a relevant capital stock series by PIM. Based on Revised Data from 1st Economic Census of China, we check our OCM - PIM capital stock series from some aspects. Finally, we conclude and provide some possible research directions for future research.