货币政策与居民就业——基于内生经济增长框架下的实证研究

Relationship Between Monetary Policy and Employment——An Emprical Research Based on Endogenous Economic Growth Framework

基于跨期最优化条件,引入劳动力供给因素,在内生经济增长框架下分析了货币政策对居民就业的影响。研究发现:如果消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度大于1,那么货币供给增长率上升会促进就业的上升;如果规避程度小于1,货币供应量增加会减少就业;而等于1时,货币供给增长率对就业只产生水平效应,没有增长效应,货币表现出中性特征。考虑到我国当前居民对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,因而扩张性的货币政策有利于就业,实证检验也证实了这一结论。但从长期来看,居民消费的相对风险规避程度呈下降趋势,因而依赖于扩张性的货币政策来解决失业问题是不可取的。

This paper analyzes the effect of monetary policy on employment under the endogenous economic growth framework by applying the intertemporal optimality and endogenous labor supply. The results found by positive analysis are as follows. If the relative degree of risk aversion for consumption is greater than 1, then the increase in the money supply will increase the amount of employment ; if less than 1, the increase of money supply will diminish employment ;if equals to 1, the effect of-money supply on employment will only have a level effect, i. e. no growth effect, so the monetary policy is neutral. Taking into account the current circumstances, the relative degree of risk aversion for Chinese consumers is greater than 1, so the expansionary monetary policy will increase employment, empirical testing has also confirmed this conclusion. However, in the long run, the aversion degree of Chinese consumers will decrease, so the attempt to solve unemployment by adopting expansionary monetary policy will be not feasible.