离散型EKC模型与中国“十一五”期间二氧化硫减排目标分析

The Study on a Discrete Environmental Kuznets Curve Model and Its Application in China

中国目前已成为二氧化硫排放的第一大国,减排工作受到整个国家乃至全世界的关注。本文以中国政府"十一五"期间二氧化硫减排目标为研究对象,以库兹涅茨的倒"U"型理论为分析基础,研究中国的二氧化硫减排问题。首先,我们通过对影响二氧化硫排放的主要因素进行分析,建立离散型EKC模型,分析中国二氧化硫排放出现转折点的条件;其次,研究了中国政府的"十一五"减排目标,分析"十一五"已过去的前两年,我们所采取的减排力度与减排目标的差距,以及在"十一五"的最后三年,我们面临的减排形势与影响因素。

In current, China has become the first on discharge of sulfur dioxide, and has largely damaged our environment, so the reduction of discharge has become a focus. In this paper, we mainly study the reduction problem of sulfur dioxide discharge in China during the year of 2006 to 2010 based on kuznets curve theory. We set up a discrete environmental kuznets curve model about the discharge of sulfur dioxide, and then we use our model analysis the reduction situation and the affection to the reduction discharge rate under uncertainty factor.