基于德尔菲法的路面不平度预测

Forecast of Pavement Roughness Based on Delphi

为建立我国汽车路面谱数据库,需要路面不平度的相关信息。为此,在江苏省道路基本情况调查的基础之上,分析了影响路面平整度的因素,并选择公路技术等级、公路使用年份和路面铺装情况作为预测路面平整度的自变量。采用德尔菲法对车辆在道路上行驶质量的影响程度进行分析并用试验验证其可靠性,从而确定了铺装类型、技术等级、道路使用年份与路面平整度之间的定性关系,建立了路面行驶质量指数分布图。试验结果表明,该方法对于路面平整度的评估效果明显,符合实际。

In order to establish Chinese road spectrum for automobile, the information of pavement roughness is needed. On the basis of the survey of the basic road status in Jiangsu Province and analyses of the characters of pavement smoothness, three factors are considered to be the independent variables of forecasting pavement smoothness, which are highway technical level, use year of highway and pavement conditions. Delphi is applied to analyze the effective degree of running of vehicle ,and the reliability of the method is proved by experiments. Therefore, the qualitative relationship between pavement types, highway technical level, use year of highway and pavement smoothness is ensured. And the distribution of running quality is established. Test results indicate that this method＇s effect is obvious to estimate pavement smoothness and it accords with fact.