市场条件下省级电力公司月度供电量预测探讨

Discussion on Forecasting of Monthly Power Supply of Provincial Electric Power Company under Market Conditions

本文通过分析市场条件下电网企业月度供电量预测对企业经营利润的影响说明其在企业经济活动中的重要性，结合实际工作对预测月度供电量要考虑的重点因素和方法进行了探讨。介绍了基于月度量年度和月度发展序列以及基层预测值统计结果预测月度供电量的方法，提出了市场条件下月度供电量预测必须建立在用户电量实际统计基础上的观点，并采取这种方法对陕西省电力公司月度供电量进行预测，平均年度误差在3．00％以内。

Through analysis of the influence of forecasting of the monthly power supply of electric utilities under market conditions on their operating profit, this paper is aimed to state its importance in the economic activities of enterprises. In the paper, discussion is made on the key factors and approaches used in forecasting of monthly power supply; introduction is made to the methods for monthly power supply forecast based on monthly power supply, yearly and monthly developmental sequence, and statistical forecasts made by grass - roots ; and the view is addressed that forecasting of monthly power supply under market conditions must be based on actual statistics of consumers＇ use of electricity. By applying this methodology, the monthly power supply forecast of Shaanxi Provincial Electric Power Company has an average annual deviation below 3.00%.