对2008年1月9日西藏改则东6.9级地震中期预测的反思

Review on the Middle-term Prediction of the Big Earthquake M_S6.9 in Gaize of Tibet on January 9,2008

2007年12月中国地震预测咨询委员会预测2008—2009年在西藏拉萨—申扎一带及附近可能发生7级地震。2008年1月9日西藏改则东6.9级地震,粗略符合原预测。所用的预测方法是倍周期性、静中动判据和地球物理灾害链。

In December 2007, the Adviser Committee for Predicting Earthquake of China predicted that an earthquake of Ms7 will be possible to occur in the region of Lasa-Shenzha during 2008--2009. The big earthquake of Ms6.9 was occurred in the east of Gaize of Tibet on January 9, 2008, which was consistent with the original prediction in some degree. The predicting methods used are multiplied periodicity, criterion of activity in quiescence and the geophysical disaster chain.