美元定价、汇率传递与美元贬值对东亚经济的冲击

Dollar Invoicing,Exchange Rate Pass-through and Dollar Depreciation's Impact on East Asia

本文对东亚国家和地区国际商品贸易定价货币的选择进行了考察,分析了东亚汇率传递的特征及美元贬值对东亚经济的影响与冲击,并提出中国的对策。研究发现:美元定价已成为外部冲击向东亚经济传导的重要渠道;美元定价导致美国和东亚之间只存在单向的汇率传递,从而削弱约束美元贬值的内在机制;在美元定价条件下,东亚国家在面对美元贬值对经济的刺激作用时乐观其成,但是在面对美元贬值所带来的"滞胀"冲击时却没有有效的隔离机制。

By examining the choice of East Asia's invoicing currency in international trade,the thesis analyzes the character of East Asia's exchange rate pass-through and the dollar depreciation's shocks on economy of East Asia and brings forward China's countermeasures.The main conclusions are:Dollar invoicing has become an important channel through which external shocks transmit to the East Asia's economy.Dollar invoicing makes a one-way exchange rate pass-through between East Asia and the United States,which weakens the mechanism of internal restrictions on dollar depreciation.Under the condition of dollar invoicing,East Asia's economies like to see the stimulation effect of dollar depreciation on their economy,but have no effective insulation mechanism to deal with its stagflation shock.