土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控的系统动力学分析

Analysis of Optimal Allocation of Land Resources and Soil Quality Regulation Using System Dynamics

土地资源优化配置及其环境效应已成为土地科学研究与保障国民经济持续健康发展的重要课题.运用系统动力学方法,结合土壤质量调查评价,探讨江苏省无锡市区土地资源优化配置与土壤质量调控问题.结果表明:经济社会发展目标与模式在很大程度上决定着土地资源配置格局,并进一步影响到区域生态环境条件和土壤质量;在经济发展优先模式下,无锡市区建设用地扩张迅速,环境负荷加重,粮食产量降低,2030年的综合土壤质量指数比2005年下降1.50;在生态保护优先模式下,无锡市区土地资源的人口承载压力趋缓,建设用地占用耕地现象得到有效控制,粮食产量较稳定,2030年的综合土壤质量指数仅比2005年下降0.57;未来土地资源配置格局应该以生态保护和提高土地资源配置的综合效益为调控重点.

Based on a system dynamics model and assessment of soil quality, the optimal allocation of land resources （OALR） and the regulation of soil quality of Wuxi City were studied. The results showed that land resource allocation patterns mainly depended on the aim and modes of eco-society development, which further influenced eco-environment status and soil quality. Under the mode of giving priority to develop the economy, construction land grew rapidly, which resulted in greater environmental burden and lower food yield. Under such a future scenario, the general relative soil quality index （GRSQI） in 2030 will decrease by 1.50 compared to 2005. However, under a scenario of giving priority to protecting eco-environment, population pressure on land resources will be lighter, and the construction encroachment on amble land may be effectively controlled. As a result, the crop yield would be steadier, and the GRSQI would decrease by 0.57 in 2030. Therefore, protecting eco-environment and enhancing comprehensive efficiency should be the key measures for regulating land resource allocation patterns in the future.