教育偏好、教育价格、人口结构与山西城镇居民预防性储蓄动机

Education Preference,Education Price,Personal Structure and Precautionary Motive of Urban Residents in Shanxi

将Zeldes和Dynan的模型进行了融合,结合山西的实际情况,对山西城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机进行了估计,同时与全国城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机强度进行了比较。结果显示,山西城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机强度大大高于全国城镇居民。在对相关的统计数据详细分析之后,发现目前和未来潜在的教育支出所带来的流动性约束是导致山西城镇居民行为更加谨慎的重要原因。教育偏好、教育价格与人口结构等因素交织在一起使山西居民的预防性储蓄动机强度超过了全国平均水平。

This paper integrates the model of Zeldes and Dynan and estimates Shanxi urban residents＇ precautionary motive as the case may be. Then it compares Shanxi urban residents＇ precautionary motive with the national urban one which is also estimated in this paper. The result is that the precautionary motive of Shanxi urban residents is far more than that of national urban. After analyzing in detail related data, this paper finds that liquidity constraints arising from educational expenditures in present and potential educational expenditures in future are the most important reason leading to Shanxi urban residents more prudent. Combined actions among education preference, education price and population profile make the precautionary motive of Shanxi urban residents surpass that of national average.