FDI、对外贸易对区域经济增长的影响——以湖南省为例

An Dynamic Analysis on FDI & Foreign Trade Affecting Regional Economic Growth——Empirical Study of Hunan Province

本文利用湖南省1985～2006年经济数据,根据协整理论和VAR模型等方法,从不同角度研究了FDI、对外贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系。实证结果表明,FDI、对外贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且湖南省地区生产总值的增长与FDI和进口额都有双向因果关系;经济增长对进出口的波动冲击都表现出正向响应,而FDI由于地区因素的影响,作用较小。

In this paper, in terms of co--integration theory and VAR model, the dynamic relations have been determined from different perspectives which quantitatively described the effects to FDI, imports and exports in the economic growth of Hunan province based on the annual economic data of 1985--2006. Empirical results indicate that there is a long--term equilibrium relation among FDI, international trade and economic growth, and also a bilateral causality relation between the GDP increasing of Hunan and FDI, imports. The innovation of economic growth from both exports and imports all show positive impulse, while FDI show less effects for regional factors.