信宜市气候变化及其对荔枝单产的影响

Climate Changes and Its Effect on Litchi Yields of Xinyi City

采用信宜市1954～2006年的平均逐月气温、降水、日照资料，利用带通滤波、线性倾向估计、突变M-K检验和小波分析等方法对信宜市气候变化与荔枝单产进行对比分析。结果表明，荔枝生长季平均气温越高，荔枝气象单产越高；而荔枝生长季降水偏多反而不利于荔枝气象单产增加；荔枝生长季日照充分有利于荔枝增产。未来几年荔枝生长季平均气温仍会偏高，但降水偏多、日照减少。总体来看，适当采取防水措施，充分利用日照资源，荔枝气象单产有望进一步提高。

The data of monthly mean temperature, precipitation and sunlight of Xinyi City during 1954 - 2006 were analyzed by using bandpass falter, linear trend analysis, Matin-Kendall method and wavelet analysis, so the climate changes of Xinyi City were studied. Through comkperative analysis between climate change and meteorological yield of litchi, the results showed that the meteorological yield of litchi would get over high if the mean temperature had an obvious warm tendency;excessive precipitation would make against increase of meteorological yield of litchi; when sunlight during litchi growth was sufficient meteerological yield of litchi would increase. In recent years, the mean temperature had a warm tendency, precipitation has become mere and sunlight has a rising tendency, so it was expected that meteorological yield of litchi will become more higher.