山区粮食安全的耕地“红线”及其对策措施体系——以云南省为例

Study on the Red Line of Farmland Area for Ensuring Food Security of Mountainous Area in China and the Countermeasures System

在评析云南省耕地资源基本态势的基础上，探讨云南省2020年总人口规模、人均粮食需求量、粮食自给率、耕地年粮食平均单产和粮播比例5个指标的合理取值问题，进而预测云南省2020年基于粮食安全目标的耕地需求量。结果表明，省域2020年基于粮食安全的耕地需求量可以确定为500万～510万hm^2，其中500万hm^2为保障云南粮食安全的耕地“红线”。并构建云南坚守500万hm^2耕地“红线”的对策与措施体系。

Based on the analysis of cultivated land change situation in Ytmnan Province in the recent 10 years, this study has probed into the reasonable values for the 5 indexes,namely total population,fcod demand per capita,fcod self-sufficient ratio,yearly food yield per unit area,and rate of grain sowing for Yunnan Province in the year 2020, and further predicted the farmland demand for food security purpose of Yunnan Province in 2020. The result indicated that the farmland demand of Yuunan Province in 2020 would be about 5.0 - 5.1 million hectares.5 million hectares of farmland has become an impassable red line for ensuring Yuunan Province＇ s food security. And this study has also developed a countermeasures system of keeping the red line in Yunnan Province.