输油管道的风险评价

Risk Assessment of a Petroleum Transportation Pipeline in Service

考虑油气管道运行中的风险因素,应用风险评价的指标模型,对一条输油管道进行了风险评价。模型中的失效可能性包括内、外腐蚀、第三方破坏、地面移动、设计/材料、运行等六个子模块,失效后果考虑了对环境、高价值地区和居民的影响。模型的因素权重由该管道以往事故统计分析确定。依据风险相同的原则和管道的实际情况,对管道进行了分段,对每一段管道确定了管道失效可能性和失效后果,并进行了风险敏感因素分析,识别风险源。基于风险评价结果,给出了该管道沿程风险分布和相对风险等级,指出腐蚀、第三方破坏以及施工时的误操作(管道建设施工遗留问题)是该管道的主要问题。风险评价的结果可以该管道的完整性管理提供参考。

Risk assessments are conducted to a petroleum transportation pipelineSHUAI Jian,DANG Wenyi et al with a risk assessment indexmodel by thinking over the risk factors in pipeline operation.In the model,likelihood of failure consists ofsuch 6 sub-models as inner or external corrosion,third party damage,ground movement,design/material,system operation.The effects of a pipelineon environment,high-value area and residence are involved in theconsequence of failure.The weight of risk factors is fixed from the statistic analysis of accident history dataof the pipeline.The pipeline is segmented according to the principle of equal risk and actual condition of thepipeline.The score of both likelihood and consequence of failure is computed for each segment of thepipeline.Furthermore,factors sensitive to risk are analyzed and risk source of the pipeline are identified.Based on the risk assessment results,risk distribution and relative risk ranking over the pipeline are given.It is pointed out that major problems for the pipeline are soil corrosion,third party damage and incorrectoperation in pipeline construction.These risk assessment results can be taken an a reference to theintegrity management of the pipeline.